UvA-DARE (Digital Academic Repository) Do cognitive models help in predicting the severity of posttraumatic stress disorder, phobia and depression after motor vehicle accidents? A prospective longitudinal study

The study investigated the power of theoretically derived cognitive variables to predict posttraumatic stress disorder (PTSD), travel phobia, and depression following injury in a motor vehicle accident (MVA). MVA survivors (N = 147) were assessed at the Emergency Department on the day of their accident, and 2 weeks, 1, 3, and 6 months later. Diagnoses were established with the Structured Clinical Interview for DSMIV. Predictors included initial symptom severities, variables established as predictors of PTSD in Ozer, Best, Lipsey, and Weiss’s (2003) meta-analysis, and variables derived from cognitive models of PTSD, phobia and depression. Results of non-parametric multiple regression analyses showed that the cognitive variables predicted subsequent PTSD and depression severities over and above what could be predicted from initial symptom levels. They also showed greater predictive power than the established predictors, although the latter showed similar effect sizes as in the meta-analysis. In addition, the predictors derived from cognitive models of PTSD and depression were disorder-specific. The results support the role of cognitive factors in the maintenance of emotional disorders following trauma.